US E-Commerce on the Brink: Recession Fears Trigger Crisis

Rising recession fears are casting a dark shadow over the US e-commerce sector, causing widespread panic among investors. Since mid-February 2025, a sharp 15% decline in e-commerce and retail stocks has signaled growing anxiety about the future of online retail. Bernstein analysts have warned that the expectation for an economic slowdown has rapidly become the base case narrative, creating a climate of uncertainty for businesses across the sector. This shift in sentiment has left many questioning whether e-commerce can continue its rapid growth in the face of a potential recession.

Despite the current anxiety, historical data offers some optimism, showing that e-commerce tends to outpace traditional retail during downturns. However, the unique combination of factors this time—including rising tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and government layoffs under the Trump administration—could significantly disrupt the sector. Analysts predict that while giants like Amazon, Walmart, and Costco may weather the storm due to their focus on essential goods, smaller platforms like eBay, Etsy, and Wayfair are at greater risk of suffering during this uncertain period. As companies brace for economic turbulence, the future of US e-commerce hangs in the balance.

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Recession Fears Threaten US E-commerce: Is Your Investment at Risk?